As the last two weeks of the regular season unfold, the Phillies' starting rotation seems to have stabilized since the debate began about which four starters would make up the playoff rotation.
About one month ago, I wrote that Cliff Lee, Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ were locks for the first three slots because Cole Hamels was in a slump and Pedro Martinez was still an unknown quantity. Since then, Hamels has returned to form, and Martinez has proven that he can go deep into his starts, although there are some questions now after a freak neck injury took him out of Saturday's game in Atlanta after three innings.
Should Pedro's injury not be serious and if Happ's rib soreness clears up, I'm with the folks who believe that Philadelphia has one of the strongest rotations — one through five — in baseball. If Happ and Martinez just need a little time to heel, then the playoff rotation is set.
Barring any injuries before the regular season concludes, the Phillies will go with Lee, Hamels, Blanton and Martinez, although there is a chance that manager Charlie Manuel could flip Hamels and Blanton to break up the two left-handers. Happ, despite having a good year, returns to the bullpen for the playoffs. This is actually a good thing because, by now, everyone is aware of the Phils' problems in the 'pen.
Manuel seems determined to go with Lidge as his closer, which is why he keeps sending Lidge out there in save situations. One can understand this partly because set-up reliever Ryan Madson hasn't been much better as a closer.
Lidge (10) and Madson (six) have a combined 16 blown saves, heading into the current series at Florida, but who are the alternatives? Also, Manuel, like all humans, is a creature of habit, and having observed him for five years in Philadelphia, he believes future performances will match past records. In a perfect world, perhaps this would be true, but things change every day, and the bullpen has some serious injury issues clouding the playoff roster.
Lefty Scot Eyre has had a great year. Heading into the Marlins' series, he was 2-1 with a 1.61 earned-run average. In 39 appearances, he's given up just five earned runs in 28 innings, but he's going to be pitching in pain until the season ends, whenever that may be. Eyre has a loose body floating in his pitching elbow, and surgery is not an option because it will end his season. With him, it might be a matter of how much pain that he can endure.
J.C. Romero has had one setback after another, but he is still hopeful to return to the team, possibly as early as the weekend. He pitched well when he returned from his 50-game suspension (20 games, five earned runs, 2.87 ERA), but how much work will he get in during the last week of the season? And would it be fair for Charlie to expect him to be as good as last season?
The only other left-handed option is Jack Taschner, who is in Clearwater nursing a back strain and is unlikely to be included on the playoff roster.
"Which is all the more reason to put Happ in the bullpen," wrote Baseball Steve in a recent e-mail.
All of this makes me wonder if Jamie Moyer will be left out in the cold for this year's playoffs.
From the right side, the successes and struggles of Madson and Lidge have been noted. Chan Ho Park, who has pitched very well since moving to the bullpen, has a hamstring pull which may keep him out through the first round of the playoffs.
And Clay Condrey has just returned, but who knows whether he can return to form? The journeyman had a good season in 2008, his first full year in the big leagues, but can the Phillies count on somebody who hasn't pitched in two months? (Also see Romero.) And are the playoffs the right time to find out who can or can't pitch when every game counts and one loss sends you closer to elimination?
Brett Myers, everyone's choice to be the closer, is an uncertainty. He hasn't pitched since Sept. 12, and his last outing was shaky (three runs in less than an inning). Speculation is that he is not fully recovered from his hip surgery. He was slated to see Dr. Michael Ciccotti in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Until the team announces something or uses him in a game, Myers is an unanswered question.
Fortunately, unheralded Tyler Walker has quietly put together a fine season after he was called up from Triple-A Lehigh Valley in July. In 26 games, he's 2-0 with a 2.51 ERA. Former starter Kyle Kendrick has also thrown well in a spot start and a few relief appearances since he was recalled, but he is not eligible for the post-season roster, although exceptions can be made due to injuries.
Manuel has some tough choices to make. My guess is that he will go with Eyre, Romero, Condrey and Myers based on past performances, but I'm not sure that's the way to go, considering what's at stake. In 2009, the Phillies have just one chance to defend a World Series championship.
That's my opinion. What do you think? Click on the "Comments?" link below and let me know.
Next post: Oct. 7.
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