This was a tough column to write. As a fan and a writer, I've always been the optimistic one, holding out all hope until the Phillies were eliminated mathematically from the pennant race.
I don't have that feeling this summer, and although I've never thrown in the towel before, I don't like this team's chances of getting to the playoffs. Several factors come into play here, and the loss of Pat Burrell certainly doesn't help. The outfielder won't be back until 2005.
Before the season began, Philadelphia had the best team on paper. However, I've always cautioned readers that expectations are based on past performances, and there is never a guarantee that any player will duplicate his previous season. A few Phillies fall into this category.
Brett Myers has thrown well in his last two outings, particularly Sunday's gem in Los Angeles. However, the kid with so much promise has been inconsistent. To play for a winner, a pitcher can't just hurl a good game once in a while. He has to do it consistently.
Myers is still learning his way around the league, and I've often compared him to Randy Wolf and his early struggles. It's my hope that Myers will eventually develop into the fine pitcher that Wolf has become, but the Phillies need strong starts from every pitcher the rest of the way to have any chance to stay in this race.
Offensively, catcher Mike Lieberthal and infielder Placido Polanco are having down years. This happens to every player during a career, and my opinion is that Lieby is simply having an off year at the plate.
I've always been a fan of Polanco. He has been playing catch-up from an injury early this year, and he seems to be on the rebound with his bat. Defensively, he's the best player on the team, and he more than makes up in the field for his offensive struggles, such as a low batting average with runners in scoring position.
I've liked Polanco almost from the moment he arrived two years ago, and so does manager Larry Bowa. Given time, the infielder will work his way back, but the Phillies don't have the luxury of time right now.
Injuries also have me down about the Phillies' chances. I subscribe to the theory that it is somewhat remarkable that the Phillies are still in the hunt, considering the number of key players lost to injuries for long stretches.
Myers and Eric Milton are the only two starters in the rotation who haven't gone down. Although Vicente Padilla was scheduled to return this week, he and Wolf have lost significant time, and Kevin Millwood could be out until next month.
In the bullpen, Billy Wagner was expected to electrify this team. When healthy, he has done so, but he also has lost a lot of time, and there's no telling where the team would be without Tim Worrell stepping up to take the closer's role in Wagner's absence.
The acquisition of Todd Jones and Felix Rodriguez has certainly helped an overworked 'pen, but the Phillies are not going to win this thing unless the starting rotation is healthy and is performing up to expectations.
Fans will soon get a look at new Phillie Corey Lidle, but I still think a front-line pitcher is needed. Has anyone asked Randy Johnson if he would be willing to pitch in Philadelphia this September?
On a brighter note, there is room for some optimism. If all injured players return and contribute, history is on the Phillies' side.
Although the 1993 club took the lead at the outset and held it throughout the season, both the 1980 and '83 teams caught fire down the stretch to claim the pennant.
Both squads also had a strong and reliable closer — Tug McGraw ('80) and Al Holland ('83). A healthy Wagner could really make a difference in September, assuming the team isn't out of contention by then.
What do you think?
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