Monday's 8-4 victory over the Washington Nationals notwithstanding, the excitement just isn't there this time. Maybe that's a good thing.
After they had stayed in contention until the final weeks of the 2003 season, much was anticipated the following year, and the Phillies wilted under the pressure of higher expectations in 2004.
After bolstering the bullpen with the acquisitions of Billy Wagner and Tim Worrell and adding lefty Eric Milton to the starting staff, pitching wasn't supposed to be a problem last year. Milton won 14 games, and Worrell exceeded all expectations, particularly when injuries to Wagner forced Worrell to be the closer for long stretches of time.
I remember saying to many people last season that the team was somewhat lucky to stay in the hunt for so long with injuries to key players, notably Wagner and starting pitchers Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla.
The 1-9 homestand in August ended all hopes and turned people away in droves. The disappointment has carried over to this year. Season ticket sales are down, and the novelty of the new stadium has worn off. If the Phillies want to see some sellouts other than on opening day, they're first going to have to demonstrate on the field that they are for real.
I'm not quite sure what to think. I don't think this team is any better than last year's, and the National League East has become tougher with the improvements made by the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets and Florida Marlins. Some people think that the Phillies could win other divisions, but not this one. It's an interesting thought, but the Phillies play in the Eastern Division.
One thing is clear to me. Unlike last season when just about anything that could go wrong did, the Phillies' only chance to win the division outright is for everything to go right this year. That means the pitching has to hold up, that the hitters have to meet expectations and that nobody is lost to a long-term injury.
It's somewhat disconcerting to think that it's the veteran pitchers, Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle, who must lead the starting rotation. The younger ones, Padilla, Wolf and Brett Myers, all have potential, but none has been consistent over a sustained period of time, and Padilla and Wolf are coming off injury-plagued seasons. If those two can stay off the disabled list, and if Myers can get it together, that trio just might be the core of a strong, young staff.
Gavin Floyd seems to be for real, but his stay, for now, is temporary. The feeling seems to be that he needs a little more seasoning at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, but it's nice to know that he is available until Padilla gets in shape or if any other starter is injured.
Offensively, I've never had complaints about this club. Clutch hitting was missing last year, and I'm hoping that it was just a temporary problem. Manager Charlie Manuel seems to have everybody feeling more relaxed, as opposed to former skipper Larry Bowa, who was so wound up that the players constantly felt on edge. If a different approach is the answer, let's give it some time.
Defensively, the club really didn't have many weaknesses, although David Bell committed quite a few errors at third base last season. This club gives up a little at second base now that the position is supposed to be Chase Utley's — another unanswered question at this point. Like others before him, Utley comes with a lively bat and a lot of potential, but if given the job outright, he is replacing one of the finest second basemen in the game.
Placido Polanco would be a starter on any team, even this one, but for now he provides insurance at second and third, should anything happen to Utley or Bell. Minor-league slugger Ryan Howard is the insurance if first baseman Jim Thome goes down with an injury.
In the outfield, there are no changes in the corners, but I'm not sure Kenny Lofton is the answer in center. Although this decision was made long ago, it appears that Lofton could be prone to injuries, and scouts are saying that he's not the same player that he once was. Age slows everybody down, and there was a lot of second-guessing when former center fielder Marlon Byrd had a torrid spring until he injured his finger and was optioned. Let's give this situation a little time before passing judgment.
One area that I'm comfortable with is the bullpen. Assuming that there are no key injuries, the team has adequate middle-innings and long relievers as well as good set-up men and closers.
I don't like making projections, so I won't, but if this team contends, it will be a pleasant surprise.
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