Pitchers hold key to Phillies success this year

By Bill McFarland

A few years ago, I made an ill-fated and halfhearted attempt to get into the real estate business. Selling houses on the side would be a good source of extra income, I thought. I bring this up because I can see two parallels as the Phillies begin the 2003 season.

In the real estate business, selling homes can be a time-consuming and arduous task. The worst part was knowing that no matter how much time and effort I put into making a sale, the commission is not paid until settlement, which is normally several months later, assuming the buyer qualifies for a mortgage.

I wanted a quicker return for my efforts, which is why I left the field, and I think Philadelphia fans will expect the same thing from the players wearing red pinstripes. General Manager Ed Wade has put together what could be one of the best Phillies teams since the glory days of 1976 through 1983, and fans will expect this club to pay similar returns.

The other comparison that I thought of was something that was drilled into me as I studied real estate courses and spoke with Realtors throughout the Northeast. Everyone always stressed that the three biggest factors in selling houses were location, location and location. Similarly, the Phillies' success this season will hinge on pitching, pitching and pitching.

The starting rotation was upgraded considerably when the Braves dropped Kevin Millwood into Wade's lap in December. After pitching in the shadows of Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine in Atlanta, the 28-year-old right-hander is expected to be the Phillies' staff ace.

Although he needed a few years to develop, left-hander Randy Wolf has quietly turned into one of the top pitchers in the National League. He seems to be a slow starter, and last year he had to deal with an injury, but once he was recovered from that, Wolf was torrid during the last four months of the 2002 campaign. We shall see if he can sustain that success.

Likewise, right-hander Vicente Padilla turned in an exceptional first half that was anticipated by nobody. He cooled off in the second half when the wear and tear of too many innings pitched took its toll. For the first time in his career, he did not play winter ball, and manager Larry Bowa and new pitching coach Joe Kerrigan hope that the rest has done some good.

Beyond those three, the rotation has a few question marks. Right-handers Brandon Duckworth and Brett Myers have tremendous potential. We'll have to wait and see if either can cut it on a consistent basis. Duckworth is on the disabled list, and veteran right-hander Joe Roa, who was a pleasant surprise last season, currently occupies his spot. Roa could end up in the bullpen when Duckworth returns from his injury.

The 'pen, unfortunately, has previously been a problem for the Phillies, and there are some questions there. If veterans Dan Plesac and Terry Adams maintain their stellar performances from last season, it will be a plus.

Likewise, young relievers Carlos Silva and Hector Mercado both look like they have bright futures. Mercado might be better suited for the starting rotation some day, and Silva apparently is being groomed to be a closer.

Which leads us to Jose Mesa. If he falters, this team could be in trouble. Nobody on the team works harder than Mesa, but age eventually catches up to everybody. The reliever is listed in the book at 36, but some think he's several years older.

During the winter, a former colleague, Bob Bloss, asked me in an e-mail message, "At his age, how many good pitches do you suppose Mesa has left?"

That's a good question because no matter how much offense is generated by the addition of Jim Thome and David Bell to a lineup that already included Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu and Mike Lieberthal, it won't really matter if the pitching doesn't hold up.

The expectation for many fans is for this team to run away with the Eastern Division. A more realistic projection will have the Phillies contending for the playoffs, perhaps as a wild-card entry.

What do you think?

This column was published on April 2, 2003, in the Northeast Times in Philadelphia, which owns the copyright. It may not be reproduced anywhere else without permission.

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